The Crimean Bridge: A Key to the Russo-Ukrainian War

Those who have been keeping up with news of the Russo-Ukrainian War have undoubtedly heard of the Crimean Bridge, also known as the Kerch Bridge. This bridge has played a vital role in the supply and movement of troops during the war, and its history ties in to the relations between Russia and Ukraine in the 21st century.

The bridge was initially proposed as a joint project between Russia and Ukraine in 2010, connecting the Crimean Peninsula to the Russian mainland. Previously, travel by ferry was the only way to cross the Kerch Strait. Construction did not begin due to worsening relations between the countries, and the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 took Ukraine out of the picture. Russia completed construction of the bridge in 2019, despite Ukraine's condemnation. The reason for the condemnation stems from the fact that the bridge allowed Russia to further militarize Crimea, and it restricted the size of ships that were able to reach Ukraine's eastern coast.

Since the onset of the war, the Crimean Bridge has been the key for Russia in supplying their troops in Ukraine's south, as it provides easy access for materials and troops to move in from the Russian mainland. Not only that, the bridge is symbolic for Russia, as it is meant to show Russia's resolve to maintain control of Crimea. Thus, the bridge has become a major target for Ukrainian sabotage missions. On October 8, 2022, a truck carrying an explosive device detonated on the bridge, causing massive structural damage. This attack hindered Russian logistics for months until the bridge's repair the following February. On July 17, 2023, the bridge was struck again, this time with sea drones. This attack crippled a section of the bridge until October.

Looking at the upcoming months of the war, it is highly likely that Ukraine will seek to strike the bridge again very soon. An unnamed Ukrainian official has already hinted at another attack on the Crimean Bridge, saying "We will do it in the first half of 2024," and claiming they already had "most of the means to carry out this goal." Additionally, Ukraine recently struck a Russian airbase in Crimea, destroying air defense systems and causing heavy casualties. This prompted military analysts to theorize that this attack was a practice run for an upcoming missile strike on the Crimean Bridge. It should also be noted that this airfield attack was carried out with long-range ATACMs missiles, secretly shipped out from the US the prior month. Thus, it is likely the Crimean Bridge attack will utilize the same weaponry. Some analysts have estimated that an attack will occur next month, possibly during Putin's inauguration on May 7.

With the recent 61 billion dollar aid package from the US, it is clear that Ukraine is attempting to bolster its military in the face of a series of Russian victories. The coming months will likely decide the outcome and ultimate timeline of the war. If Ukraine is unable to hold the line and stop the Russian momentum, it is unlikely that they will be able to recover any ground. This is why the Crimean Bridge is so vital. Taking it out of commission means that Russia will have a much harder time supplying its forces in the south, giving Ukraine the chance to utilize new US aid to reinforce their lines and hold out.